For the First Time in Years, Apple Has Analysts Guessing
posted Saturday Jan 27, 2018 by Scott Ertz
This week has been a whirlwind of analyst predictions for Apple's future, and for the first time in several years, there is no clear story. Normally analysts are able to piece together the company's plans based on just a few factors, such as current product sell-through rates, parts orders and manufacturer contracts. This years, the numbers are all over the place, and there is no picture coming to light.
A number of analysts, including KGI securities, have said that, because of Apple's lower than expected demand for the iPhone X, and the lower than average satisfaction from those who own them, the iPhone X might not survive the generation. This is significant for a number of reasons. First, this is Apple's first real attempt at any sort of innovation in a decade. The iPhone has been the same device with moderate improvements since the first model. The iPad is a larger iPhone, with a model that incorporates a Microsoft-style stylus. The HomePod is an Amazon Echo, Google Home, Harmon Kardon Invoke catchup device, whose assistant seems to be not up to the task. It would appear that, without Steve Jobs' hands-on management, the iPhone X has not been the success Apple needed.
Second, Apple is notorious for keeping the previous generation devices around after their successors reach the market, as an option for those who do not want the latest device, or are looking for a more budgeted entry into Apple's ecosystem. Infrequently does an iPhone not survive to live another day after its official retirement. The iPhone 4c and iPhone SE are the only modern examples that I can think of that didn't make the cut, and that is because they were bottom of the ecosystem at launch. The flagship device has never been skipped over for retention.
On the other hand, analysts at The Investor have other beliefs. They suggest that the iPhone X will survive the model cut, possibly as the only device to survive, with the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus being cut instead. The rest of the line is believed to be an upgraded version of both, presumably being marked iPhone 8s and iPhone 8s Plus. Rounding out the line would be a new version of the iPhone SE, perhaps iPhone SE 2 (launched well ahead of the next generation). These devices are tipped to be larger models, possibly leaving the iPhone X as the smallest device in the family.
Depending on who you ask, the new models, which are definitely coming, could have a variety of screens. Some analysts suggest that all models will feature OLED screens, while other suggest that it will be 2 with OLED and 2 with more traditional LCD. Some report that all of the OLED screens will continue to come from Samsung, who supplied the screen for the iPhone X, while others suggest that Apple is in talks to bring LG's screens into the fold as well.
No matter the outcome, there is on thing that is clear: Apple seems to actually have people guessing what their next move will be, and that is a major change for the industry. Whatever informational hole has existed within the company seems to have been sealed. Whether that is in the company's best interest remains to be seen.